Hyperinflation in 1404 — steel billet breaks its historic price channel

Studying the chart, it is clear that from the beginning of 1399 to the beginning of 1404 — that is, over five years — the price of Khuzestan Steel's bloom billet moved within an upward channel along a well-defined and predictable inflationary path, rising on average by roughly 4,700 to 4,800 tomans per kilogram each year.

From the start of 1404, however, coinciding with the break above the channel's resistance ceiling, that inflationary behaviour changed entirely and ceased to be predictable. The sharp rise that followed has pushed the cumulative price increase over roughly an 18-month window — from the middle of 1403 to today — beyond 27,000 tomans per kilogram.

That figure is about four times the average annual growth of the preceding four years and indicates that the steel market has entered a new phase.